Friday, 6 June 2008

Will Ireland Defy The Odds?

The voters of Ireland, the only EU member state to be given a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, may be about to defy their Government (and its main opposition party) and vote No next Thursday if polls published today are to be believed.

The TNS/MRBI poll for the Irish Times puts the No vote 5% ahead of the Yes, at 35%-30% - though a huge 28% are still undecided.

The swing to No is described by Vote No 2 Lisbon as "unprecedented" in the history of Irish polling, and suggests that the tactics of the No campaign, propelled forward by the efforts of groups like Libertas, as well as worker's organisations such as the UNITE trade union could succeed.

The odds against a No vote have dropped dramatically since the publication of the latest poll, though there is clearly significant scepticism that the predictions of the Irish Times will come to pass, as Yes is still the clear favourite at both Paddy Power and Betfair.

However, only two days ago, Paddy Power were offering odds of 3-1 against a No vote. Those odds have now come in to just 13-8 - less than two to one against.

It's going to be close. Here's hoping it's going to be No.

Previous post on the Irish referendum (posted 15th April)
Hat-tip: Michael (LPUK forums)

1 comment:

Mark Wadsworth said...

Brilliant, those polls are moving in the right direction, I'm beginning to see a tiny ray of hope here!