Thursday, 28 August 2008

Will Hubris Be The Democrats' Downfall?

Why on Earth are Obama and the Democratic party such strong favourites in the betting over at Betfair?

The odds against John McCain becoming the next president of the USA are 7-4 against; not far off two to one, which in a two-horse race such as the US presidential election are surely very good odds. When the polls are putting the two parties virtually neck-and-neck, and with the Republicans having pulled back strongly in terms of percentages in swing states (compare the Electoral Vote polling data from two months ago with those of today), the overall trend seems to be one of decline in support for Barack Obama and Republican fightback.

The Obama campaign has displayed extraordinary levels of hubris, at times seemingly working on the assumption that a Democrat victory is all but a formality. Should Obama lose, this sort of audacity will be looked back upon with incredulity, similarly to Neil Kinnock's Sheffield speech ahead of the 1992 general election; and as for his grandstanding in Berlin... McCain's understated, modest response was ridiculed by US liberals at the time, but I can't help but wonder who will have the last laugh.

This kind of presumptuousness, this 'we're right, the other lot are wrong and don't we just know it' attitude is if anything even more pervasive among the American left than it is on this side of the Atlantic. Despite all of the political and socio-economic reasons why 2008 should be the Democrats' year, if thanks to this kind of cluelessness 'Obama: Messiah' becomes the defining image of the Democratic candidate, it will be third time unlucky for the donkey party. I can't help but think that the Betfair price is perhaps just another manifestation of that same hubris.

1 comment:

Letters From A Tory said...

Unfortunately for the Republicans, it does seem as though the Democrats are right a lot more of the time than they are.